Wedbush says it’s seeing some 10-12% more pre-orders for this year’s iPhone 15 lineup than it did in the same period last year – and that’s not the only good news for Apple …
While only Apple has the actual numbers, analysts and market intelligence companies use a variety of methods to estimate sales numbers. One common one is to recruit panels of consumers who are paid a small fee to allow companies to scan their emails for purchase receipts.
WedBush says that its own analysis shows iPhone 15 pre-orders up at least 10% year-on-year, and that the most expensive model in the lineup is doing even better.
The mix is heavily skewed towards iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max with Pro Max exceptionally strong in the US, China, India, and parts of Europe. This is a clear positive for Apple with ASPs set to be a major tailwind for Cupertino in this iPhone 15 cycle with our expectation of an ASP in the ~$925 range and up roughly $100 over the last 12-15 months given heavy Pro mix model shifts.
While sheer numbers are of course important, the average selling price (ASP) can also make a huge difference to Apple’s bottom line. The greater the proportion of people who buy the most expensive model, the more money Apple makes even for the same number of unit sales.
The firm cites lengthening shipping times for the two Pro models as further evidence.
Delivery/shipment times now have moved to late October to early November for various models of iPhone 15 Pro/Pro Max with the iPhone 15 set to go on sale in Apple Stores/retail on Friday, Sept 22. iPhone 15 Max looks like a clear standout on this cycle.
Year-on-year compares are very tough here, as supplies were last year very constrained by COVID-19-related disruption.
Wedbush says that Indian orders are looking particularly strong, as the middle class continues to grow in the emerging economy. China, too, is looking good, despite recent government propaganda.
In India we believe pre-orders are up close to 25% YoY and also looking strong out of the gates importantly in China which remains front and center for the Street given recent noise coming out of the region. We believe market share gains will remain steady in China from Apple with this iPhone 15 cycle despite growing Street skepticism.
Analyst Daniel Ives says that lengthening upgrade cycles, now hitting four years for iPhones, mean that as many as 250M iPhone owners globally are in the right window for a new iPhone.
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